USDA Report Shows Corn Stocks Up 35% as U.S. Wheat Crop Falls 23%

USDA’s latest Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports, released on September 30, point to a much larger U.S. corn inventory and a considerably smaller wheat crop. Corn stocks totaled 2.095 billion bushels (about 53.2 million metric tons) on September 1, up 35% from a year earlier and well above the average trade estimate of roughly 1.92 billion bushels. Soybean stocks came in at 315 million bushels (about 8.57 million metric tons), down 3% year over year, while wheat stocks fell 14% to 1.85 billion bushels.

On the production side, USDA estimated the 2026 U.S. wheat crop at 1.534 billion bushels (about 41.7 million metric tons), down 23% from 2025. Winter wheat fell particularly sharply, down 27% to 1.02 billion bushels, while other spring wheat and durum production were also lower. The new figures matter for grain markets because they change the supply picture heading into the 2026/27 marketing year, particularly for corn and wheat.